In his response to a man who declared he was voting Democratic for the first time in his life, Republican former Florida congressman Matt Gaetz encapsulated much of the GOP's midterm message this week.

Gaetz said to the man on X, "I hate the war too, but the Democrats want to trans your kids."

In the 2024 election, the transgender topic appeared to be a powerful one. President Donald Trump's campaign produced a powerful advertisement claiming Democratic nominee Kamala Harris was "for they/them." You have President Trump on your side. However, a recent CNN survey indicates that the playbook won't work as well this time.

This appears to be the case for a number of other GOP red-meat issues as well. Republicans have tried to concentrate on well-established issues that voters find appealing. However, polls now indicate that those are not the top priority for voters.

The economy is simply overwhelming other issues, perhaps more than in any previous midterm.

And Democrats now have an easy way to handle that problem thanks to Trump's actions.

Rights of transgender people

During the 2024 presidential campaign, the GOP gave transgender issues a lot of attention. Additionally, it has been a mainstay in its 2026 advertising campaign.

However, according to a recent CNN survey, registered voters only slightly favor the GOP on that issue—37%–32%.

The most startling finding is that only 25% of voters considered the issue to be "extremely important." That was the lowest of the 11 problems examined, far behind voting and healthcare issues, and behind abortion, tariffs, and crime.

In a similar vein, a July CNN survey revealed that only 35% of independents thought Democrats were overly preoccupied with transgender problems, while 31% said the same of Republicans.

Since 2024, Democrats have moved closer to the center on issues like children's sports and downplayed their support for transgender rights. Additionally, a few of them are advertising their jobs.

It is undeniably true that concentrating on transgender policies could increase GOP turnout, something Republicans could exploit given their disinterested base. Even still, only 34% of Republicans believe the topic is crucial to their vote, which is only more than the 29% of Democrats who agree.

Immigration

Another key component of Republican campaigning is immigration. Given that Trump has reduced illegal border crossings to all-time lows, that would appear to be a powerful message for the GOP.

Additionally, 50% of voters claim that it is crucial to their decision. That's a significant amount, and it's higher than what was mentioned in the midterm elections in 2006, 2018, and 2022.

However, there's a catch: Democrats are suddenly quite concerned about it as well, presumably as a result of Trump's divisive deportation tactics.

Republicans were 35 points more inclined than Democrats to see immigration to be a critical issue in 2022 (65%–30%). The difference is now only 10 points, or 60%–50%.

According to a CNN poll, people chose Republicans over the Democratic Party 41%–36%, suggesting that Republicans still hold a slight advantage on immigration. However, some surveys indicate that Democrats are leading.

Ironically, voters would seem to find the matter far less urgent as a result of the border slowness.

Republicans have a 40%-29% lead on crime, more than any other subject.

However, only 41% of voters who are registered claim that the topic is crucial to their decision.

And once more, the significant cuts we've seen in recent years—which Trump regularly highlights but started under the Biden administration—seem to have lessened the issue's importance to voters.

Piker Hasan

Hasan Piker, a far-left streamer, has become a key focal point for the GOP in recent weeks. And they have done so not only against Piker's primary opponent, Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, but also against other Democrats.

However, a recent survey indicates that it doesn't really resonate with people who don't pay much attention to politics.

According to a Michigan New York Times-Siena College survey, Piker was not well-liked among likely voters who knew him. However, 54% of respondents indicated they had never heard of him, and 6 out of 10 expressed no opinion.

The percentage of independents who had an opinion about Piker was just 13%.

In contrast, the economy

The economy is another unquestionably significant problem. It may be the most dominant point in a very long time.

According to a CNN poll, 68% of registered voters believe that the economy has a significant impact on their decision to cast a ballot. That is essentially tied with the previous high point on that subject, which was between 59% and 69% in the midterm elections of 2022.

Aside from it, only one other midterm in the twenty-first century had the economy break 50%: 2010 (56%).

To restate, it's currently 68%, but it's typically around 50%.

Democrats now have a seven-point advantage on this subject, which traditionally benefits Republicans, thanks to Trump's 73% disapproval rating on the economy and his 80% disapproval rating on inflation.

In line with a president who has been astonishingly contemptuous of worries about affordability and gas prices, the GOP appears to be making considerable attempts to make the election about other issues.

However, there is now very little proof that it is effective or even has the potential to be effective.