China's military growth ambitions are being hampered by its anticorruption crackdown, according to the Pentagon.
In a new report issued Wednesday, the Pentagon claims that China's efforts to increase the size of its military by 2027 are being hampered by a pervasive anticorruption campaign at the highest echelons of the Chinese military and government.
“In the second half of 2023 alone, at least 15 high ranking military officials and defense industry executives were removed from their posts for corruption … At a briefing on the China Military Power report, which is presented to Congress every year and details China's military and security advancements, a senior defense official told reporters this week that the [People's Liberation Army's] progress toward its 2027 goals may have been hampered by the wave of corruption-related investigations and the dismissal of senior leaders.
The individual went on to say that it is "having some impact already" and would "inevitably" resurface as the Pentagon keeps tabs on how the campaign is affecting people, large building projects, and the development and procurement of military equipment.
The paper also claims that China is "almost certainly" using the lessons it has learned from Russia's war in Ukraine to inform its strategy toward Taiwan. The top defense official specifically stated that China wants to “advance their objectives” in the information domain and has interpreted the sanctions on Russia as an indication that it must become more independent in order to survive more sanctions.
According to the report, China now possesses an estimated 600 nuclear warheads in operation, an increase of about 100 since the previous year's assessment was published. Although the senior defense official stated that it was consistent with their earlier projections, they added that they undoubtedly anticipate China will "continue expanding and modernizing their force" after 2030. It states that they will have over 1,000 operational nuclear bombs by that time.
Xi Jinping, the leader of China, has outlined a bold plan to "modernize" the PLA by 2035 and make it a "world class" force by the middle of the century. Although they have emphasized that this does not imply an invasion will take place in 2027, American officials believe Xi has directed the PLA to be prepared to invade the self-governing island of Taiwan by that year.
However, CNN has stated that Xi is facing betrayal inside his own team and is increasingly turning against them amid the effort. In fact, the Pentagon study identifies a number of recent instances in which high-ranking officials in the government, military, and defense sector were either sacked or the subject of an investigation.
For instance, a senior military official who was considered Xi's close aide was suspended and the subject of a corruption investigation in November. The senior official added that individuals are being purged "at all levels," even though higher-ranking members of China's military receive the most attention.
Political officials in China "probably view" the anti-corruption effort "as a necessary tool to build a professional fighting force as part of the PLA's 2027 modernization goals," according to the research released on Wednesday.
However, the senior defense official stated that the PLA's 2027 aim is being impacted directly by the "frequent turnover and replacement of high-level personnel." According to the official, turnover of that magnitude might impede undertakings, such as large-scale construction projects or military industrial projects.
Given China's unwavering focus on increasing its purchases of warships and weaponry, experts say corruption in the defense sector in particular is not shocking. The drive to modernize the PLA Navy alone offers many potential for corruption, Victor Shih, a professor of political science at the University of San Diego, previously told CNN.
According to the senior official, "there is sort of a spiraling kind of effect where it inevitably seems to draw in additional officials once they uncover corruption in one place or involving one senior official." They also said that since Xi has made the fight against corruption a "hallmark of his tenure," it was doubtful that he would give up on it.
“I would definitely expect them to continue the anticorruption campaign because I believe they have identified it as something that really has posed great risks to the political reliability and ultimately the operational capability of the PLA,” the person stated.
