Senate Republicans are working feverishly to complete a budget blueprint that would allow them to finally implement Trump's agenda in a single, big policy bill.
After passing a budget framework, they could draft military, immigration, and tax legislation that would just need a simple majority in the Senate to pass.
This week has been crucial in helping leaders heal the tensions that shook the two chambers earlier this year, following months of internal disagreements between House and Senate GOP leaders over how to move forward. Speaker Mike Johnson has repeatedly shown that he can maintain his slim House majority, and Senate Republican Leader John Thune has acknowledged that if the House can pass Trump's "one big beautiful bill," the Senate must do the same. These events have led to their current situation.
Senate leaders are hinting to their conference that they may pass a budget blueprint as early as next week, but there is still a lot of work to be done. The House and Senate would then be able to start the more extensive talks about how to fully implement a major tax, border, military, and savings plan that might involve a two-year debt hike.
It's the crucial initial step of a huge project.
What to anticipate the following week
Next week, Senate Republicans will to the floor if they can complete a revised budget plan and the leadership is certain they have the votes. This opens up a new budget vote-a-rama.
Keep in mind that senators can vote on contentious amendments for hours on end throughout that process, and it continues until both sides decide they've had enough. These marathons usually last into the early hours of the morning and are uncomfortable for everyone involved, both physically (remember that senators are normally 65 years old) and politically (they push senators to take difficult decisions).
Things to look out for in the next days
Since the House enacted its budget plan in February, efforts to complete this version of the Senate budget blueprint have been in progress, but in recent days, they have accelerated, according to sources.
Regarding the Senate budget resolution, Thune informed reporters Thursday morning that it was "in the process of being drafted."
Following a crucial meeting earlier this week in which Thune, Johnson Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith, Senate Finance Chairman Mike Crapo, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Director of the National Economic Counsel Kevin Hassett made significant progress in identifying a course forward, House and Senate leaders, along with the chairs of pertinent committees, have been in close communication with Treasury and the White House regarding priorities. However, there are still several important elements that lawmakers are working to iron out, one of which would necessitate a call from the Senate's parliamentarian.
A significant decision that may impact Republicans' tax-paying power
We apologize, but this is a bit complicated, but it's crucial!
We anticipate hearing back from the Senate lawmaker in the near days regarding whether Republicans can move forward with the presumption that extending the present tax cuts will not cost anything. Why that matters is as follows:
Despite the fact that several of the provisions have an expiration date at the end of the year, Republicans argue that maintaining "current policy" doesn't increase the deficit because it costs nothing to continue doing so. This is disputed by Democrats, and the Congressional Budget Office does not use this method for scoring. This reasoning, however, is significant to the discussion because it would enable Republicans to enact a significantly larger number of tax cuts, including critical presidential goals like tip tax exemptions, while maintaining the cuts inside the ceiling established by the House budget resolution. No more than $4.5 trillion will be spent by Congress on taxes, according to that plan.
Republicans argue that the Budget Act of 1974 requires the Budget Chairman (in this case, Sen. Lindsey Graham) to make this call unilaterally, but Democrats counter that that's a slippery slope that allows a chairman to undermine the strict rules that govern budget reconciliation in the first place. Republicans have been promoting this idea with current parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough for weeks, but she hasn't issued an official ruling yet.
Next up: Can the Senate GOP unify behind a deal that lifts the debt ceiling?
A crucial conclusion from Tuesday’s meeting with GOP leadership was that they are going to at least try to include a debt ceiling rise in this package. Though some conservative senators, including Rand Paul of Kentucky, have expressed some qualms about the plan, the president prefers to accomplish this with only GOP votes. Note that Thune has some leeway in this situation. Even if he loses three people, he can still complete this.
The clear incentive is that if only Republicans negotiate a debt ceiling rise, the party will not have to compromise or provide Democrats with anything to prevent a default. That is a powerful incentive, and in the end, it was sufficient to persuade House Republicans to pass the budget blueprint in their chamber in February with nearly unanimous votes.
Adopting the budget is just the beginning.
We anticipate that the Senate's bill will not precisely align with the House's directives. Additionally, the House will need to take independent action and adopt some of the Senate's revisions after the Senate passes the resolution.
Naturally, that becomes into yet another test for Johnson to maintain his members' compliance during this procedure. Additionally, conservatives in the House are emphatic that they would not back any budget package that reduces expenditure.
All well, so this is merely the blueprint?
When will the actual bill with tax cuts and funding for the border and defense be written, you ask?
Johnson has stated time and time again that he wants to deliver that last box to the president before Memorial Day. That is a very ambitious timeframe, in part because this budget resolution pushes many of the most difficult decisions of where to cut, how much to reduce, and what tax provisions to include in the future. Even if everyone's provision isn't included, Johnson and Thune will need to put in extra effort there to keep their conferences cohesive because that is where members care the most.
Earlier this month, Sen. Mike Crapo, the chairman of the finance committee, told CNN that his committee had received hundreds of requests for tax provisions. This indicates that each senator—and, you can be sure, every member of the House—is fighting for a particular provision in this bill. That means increasing the cap on the state and local tax deduction, which was drastically reduced in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, according to some prominent Republicans in the House. For others, it involves increasing the tax credits for research and development. More people might wish to increase the child tax credit.
Every member has a priority here, so it's important to bear in mind that the financial blueprint is only the first step—and, technically, the easiest part.
