For months, President Donald Trump has been asking his national security team in private, "Why aren't the Iranian people overthrowing their leaders?"

At the beginning of the war, he appeared to be very assured of this result, having been persuaded by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that following an intense round of strikes, mass protests would erupt in Tehran.

According to those acquainted with the situation, the subject was extensively disputed prior to the start of the initial strikes, and other American officials weren't so convinced after reading intelligence assessments that suggested that wasn't likely. Nevertheless, Trump's push for a takeover of the government in late February set off the confrontation.

In a video the nite the war started, he told the Iranian people, "This will probably be your only chance for generations."

The more pressing necessity of negotiating with the government to reopen the Strait of Hormuz swiftly overshadowed the notion. By June, Trump maintained that he "never cared about regime change" in Iran, saying that American attempts to overthrow foreign governments "never work" and that he was in talks with "very rational people."

Despite such remarks, Trump persisted in questioning why his demands for the fall of the administration were ignored, according to people with knowledge of the situation.

Now, with diplomatic relations with Iran at a standstill and traffic across the strait still below pre-war levels, Trump has reverted to the idea he started the conflict with six months ago.

He questioned on social media on Tuesday, "When are the Iranian people going to rise up and fight?"

A recurring theme in the continuing conflict

The most recent déjà vu moment in a conflict that seems to cycle through well-known patterns in monthly increments was the pendulum swinging back to regime change advocacy.

The United States and Iran swapped strikes over three days in a row this week, ending a month-long period of relative calm and resuming the same pattern of retaliation that lasted for weeks earlier this summer.

Trump, who has frequently threatened to destroy Iran's civilian infrastructure, declared on Wednesday that he was ready to unleash an even more extensive round of devastation if necessary.

He stated, "It was a very heavy attack last nite and we're prepared to do another one any time we want," but he also expressed doubts about how long the resumed fighting would go.

Officials say that since Trump ordered his envoys to stop talking to Iran last month, there have been no significant attempts to resume diplomatic relations. Rather, Trump claims he is satisfied with the current state of the war and doesn't seem eager to find a long-term solution.

This week, he posted on social media, "I like our position now, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing."

For the next two months, when voters start casting ballots that will determine the balance of power on Capitol Hill, many in Trump's inner circle would prefer that the conflict completely disappear from the political discourse.

Senior aides and Republican supporters on Capitol Hill have all warned that a renewed clash would portend difficulty on election day, even though the president has downplayed the influence of the midterm elections on his Iran decision-making.

Regarding Iran, Trump stated on Wednesday, "I don't know how much more they can take, but, you know, whatever it is, it doesn't matter." "And the election has no bearing on me."

A tactical change that aims to incite inward rage

A change in the administration's approach to attempt choking off Tehran's finances, particularly by imposing sanctions on its biggest trade partners, coincided with the desire for a less visible conflict. The largest of those threatened fines has not yet been imposed by the Treasury Department.

However, part of the Trump team's strategy was to incite resentment among disenchanted Iranians toward their leaders by attempting to cut off Iran's financial lifelines and worsen the nation's economic circumstances. In private, officials admit that the new restrictions will disproportionately affect ordinary Iranians.

Iran is already experiencing severe economic hardship. Food prices are rising weekly, and inflation has skyrocketed. The value of Iran's currency, the rial, has fallen. Iran's senior leaders admit they are dealing with a number of economic issues.

Prior to the announcement of the new Treasury Department measures last week, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian remarked, "We are sorry that these problems exist, as we find ourselves in a full-scale economic, military, and security war," according to state media.

Even while the country's economic position is getting worse, several US officials said there was little evidence to suggest a fresh chance that Iranian protestors would take to the streets to overthrow their leaders.

A joint US-Israeli operation was unlikely to result in regime change, according to American intelligence assessments conducted prior to the start of the war, and authorities stated months later that the regime had maintained its hold on power.

Contrary to the aspirations of succeeding US administrations, decades of severe Western sanctions have failed to destabilize the dictatorship. Instead, protests have been met with harsh crackdowns; at the beginning of this year, the Iranian government launched one of the worst crackdowns in the history of the Islamic Republic.

Iran's officials, according to analysts, were aware of Trump's goals in attempting to tighten the economic noose.

According to Hamidreza Azizi, senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, "the Iranian leadership sees this kind of economic campaign of economic pressure not in isolation, but as part of a broader campaign by the United States, which at some point is going to have an element of domestic unrest and eventually lead either to regime change or to bring Iran to better terms with the United States."

When asked this week if the US, maybe through the CIA, would arm Iranian dissidents seeking to topple the government, Trump remained evasive.

In the Oval Office on Wednesday, he remarked, "I'd love to tell you that, but it wouldn't be appropriate to say."

He also said that he knew the answer to his own question, even after asking why Iranians weren't standing up.

He remarked, "I understand their plight." "They are currently being shot."