The idea to have two presidential debates between Joe Biden and Donald Trump materialized in the course of four hours on Wednesday.
While some details still need to be finalized, it appears the Democratic and Republican candidates will face off twice, on June 27 and September 10. Traditionally, debates are held in September and October.
Mr. Trump, who has been advocating for a debate "anytime, anywhere" for months, got his wish. Mr. Biden, on the other hand, managed to set the terms of their meetings.
Now that we have an idea of the agreed terms, let's take a closer look at how the debates could benefit or harm the two campaigns.
Biden Takes the Plunge The president had been coy about whether he would debate his Republican opponent. If he had declined, he would have been the first president since Richard Nixon in 1972 to skip the debate process entirely.
Given repeated questions about his age and competency to serve another four years in office, avoiding the debates would have risked convincing the public he was not up to the task.
Instead, Biden was able to set the terms of the debate in a way that might work to his advantage. The two events will be hosted by CNN and ABC News, avoiding Fox News and a potentially right-leaning moderator.
The early timing of the first debate—before the summer party nominating conventions—might also benefit Biden.
First, it gives his team an earlier opportunity to frame the election as a choice between Biden and Trump. Biden's advisers believe that as the public becomes more aware of another potential Trump presidency, support for Biden will solidify.
Second, a June debate gives Biden more time to recover if he has a weak performance. Incumbent presidents often have uneven first debates, and if Biden follows this trend, he has months, including a potentially strong Democratic convention speech, to rebound.
However, the plan carries risks. If Biden is still trailing in October, there won't be any high-profile debates to shift the narrative. If he struggles in June, it could cement doubts about his capabilities, potentially beyond repair.
Trump's Big Debate Gamble Mr. Trump conceded some control to secure the president's debate commitment. If he defeats Biden in November, it will prove to have been worth it.
The upside for Trump is clear. He will have the opportunity to make a clear public distinction between himself and Biden, maybe advancing the idea that he would make a better leader and that Biden is weak.
Like Biden, the early debate timing gives Trump an opportunity to recover if he doesn't perform well.
While the Biden team insists the two scheduled debates will be the only ones, Trump can continue to call for more face-offs and try to portray Biden's refusal as a sign of weakness.
