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Why Harris chose Walz based on math and why she would later regret it
Until the last few weeks, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz wasn't considered one of Kamala Harris's top contenders for the position of running mate. However, his choice to run alongside the vice president on the Democratic ticket highlights the influence of social media in addition to his general likeability and lack of polarization.
What then happened to turn Walz from a relative unknown in the country to the vice presidential contender of a major party? The whole incident may merely be described as "weird."
Remember how, a few weeks ago, Democrats began referring to Republicans JD Vance and Donald Trump as "weird"? The bizarre part is that the attack seemed to have been successful even though it felt like something out of high school.
There has been a sudden rise in searches for the term "weird," according to Google trend statistics. More than that, the Republican Party, Vance and Walz, and Make America Great Again were the subjects linked to "weird."
Why does Walz exist? He is acknowledged as being the first to begin characterizing Republicans as strange on a broad scale.
We also know that the Harris campaign was keeping an eye on things since at least one email was sent out suggesting that the internet discourse was being shaped by the "weird" assaults made against the Republican ticket.
It should come as no surprise that Harris chose a candidate with a strong internet presence—this is the campaign that has embraced terms like "brat" and "coconut tree." Additionally, Harris has excelled on TikTok, something that Joe Biden's campaign was unable to accomplish.
But does the Walz choice represent an overly internet campaign?
Given that Harris chose Walz over Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, it is a legitimate question. Shapiro's perceived views on Israel and Palestine caused division among the internet left, despite being seen for a long time as a front-runner for the vice presidential nomination.
Remarkably, Walz, who is Jewish, has seen significantly less criticism than Shapiro while holding many of the same opinions on the matter.
It was very definitely to Walz's advantage that he encountered almost no resistance from any of the major groups inside the Democratic Party. After all, since Harris emerged as the likely Democratic nominee, her campaign has been carried on positive feelings.
On a wider scale, Walz's nondivisive approach appeared to be effective on a smaller scale as well. According to CNN, Harris got along well with him personally and especially like his "happy go lucky" outlook.
Selecting a running buddy should only be done if you get along with them and won't possibly split the party.
"Do no harm" is one of the primary guidelines for selecting a vice presidential candidate. This selection by Harris probably didn't hurt anything. Walz is in his second term as governor and was a member of the US House for twelve years. Unlike his Republican opponent Vance, who is the least popular vice presidential contender to emerge from his party's convention ever, he cannot be blamed for lacking experience.
A choice that carries some risk
Currently, the most important question is whether Harris made a mistake in selecting Walz over Shapiro.
It's unlikely that Minnesota will be competitive in the autumn. Since 1972, no Republican candidate for president has won the state; this is the longest winning streak for Democrats in presidential elections (apart from Washington, DC). Furthermore, surveys conducted in the North Star State since Harris entered the race indicate that the trend is probably going to continue.
In contrast, Harris most likely needs to win Pennsylvania if she is to become president. In fact, the polling there has been quite close, making it perhaps the most significant swing state of this campaign.
In Pennsylvania, Shapiro presently has a 61% favorable rating; in 2022, he beat Biden's 2020 baseline by 14 points.
It's unclear if it would have been sufficient to advance a Harris-Shapiro ticket in Pennsylvania this autumn, but political science research indicates that it very well may have.
We can state, however, that Harris is unlikely to benefit from Walz's large number of swing voters. When he won reelection in 2022, he performed less than a point better than Biden in Minnesota. Indeed, Shapiro appears to have performed better in Pennsylvania among White voters without a college degree than Walz did when targeting the same group two years prior.
Furthermore, it's unclear if Walz can support the Democratic ticket outside of his own state, even if he had been an electoral force to be reckoned with.
In the event that Harris narrowly loses both Pennsylvania and the election, it will rank among the greatest "what-ifs" in history. Was it because of her fear of the left-wing internet that she did not select Shapiro?
Naturally, Harris hopes that the race will not be so close. It appears that she is gaining momentum, and the Walz selection is unlikely to stop her.