The winner of the White House might be whoever can finally formulate a compelling economic argument.
In the 2024 election, voters consistently tell pollsters that their economic uncertainties are the main concern. The fact that none of their candidates has yet to decisively address such concerns is thus a criticism of both parties.
However, in the following three days, both nominees will try again to persuade the American people that they can bring prosperity. On Wednesday in North Carolina, former President Donald Trump will attempt to refute Kamala Harris' contribution to the Biden economy. With her first big policy address of the campaign, the vice president will chase his jet fumes down to the crucial swing state on Friday. According to advisers, this speech will give answers on how she would cut costs.
Compared to the economies of many other wealthy countries, the US economy has rebounded from the Covid-19 epidemic more strongly. However, many Americans have felt squeezed for decades, and presidents of the twenty-first century have all found it difficult to address the political fallout from the disparity that globalization has bred.
This year, rather than releasing comprehensive ideas to assist workers, Trump—who found fertile political ground amid economic gloom in 2016—has spent more time hurling insults, engaging in racial baiting, and complaining about his personal concerns. His exaggeration lacks gravity, akin to a foreboding Great Depression warning. Furthermore, his nostalgic revisionism of his first term's economic policies misses the fact that his main project, a significant tax reduction, benefited the wealthiest considerably more than the working class.
Restoring economic justice was the primary goal of President Joe Biden's domestic program, which also included reviving industry and fixing the nation's deteriorating infrastructure. But his massive expenditure plans contributed to the inflation that has harmed a great number of Americans. And he frequently gave the impression that he was criticizing voters as they went through difficult times for failing to give him credit for his legislative accomplishments.
To now, Harris has only offered the broadest explanations for how she will lower costs and persuade the public that they would soon benefit from a rather robust economy. The vice president has eliminated Biden's polling disadvantage against Trump while riding the wave of enthusiasm in her party. She still has to go a risky route, though.
Given his status as the apparent incumbent in this contest, Harris is susceptible to any abrupt changes in the state of the economy. Immediately following last week's one-day stock market drop, Trump declared a "Kamala crash." Since the equities have recovered the majority of their gains, he has not been as loud. However, the vice president faced a hazardous few months due to contradictory economic indications. Just on Tuesday, fresh information indicating that the Producer Price Index, a gauge of wholesale inflation, declined in July further highlighted the dichotomy in the economy that voters are so familiar with. However, Home Depot also issued a warning that customer confidence was waning.
This week, voters may begin to receive answers to their questions about the economy, as the mechanics of the redesigned campaign are pressuring Trump and Harris to be more detailed. The team supporting the Republican nominee is working quickly to link Biden's alleged shortcomings to Harris before she has a chance to establish her own identity.
In a statement advertising his visit in Asheville, North Carolina, for a big address on the economy on Wednesday afternoon, Trump's team said that "hard-working Americans are suffering because of the Harris-Biden Administration's dangerously liberal policies." "The cost of living has increased and prices are unbelievably high, leaving those on fixed incomes uncertain about how they will be able to maintain a basic standard of living in the future."
In order to allay concerns about her potential to manage the economy from the Oval Office, Harris is acting swiftly. Over the previous four years, the vice president has traveled far to promote the goals of the Biden-Harris administration, but she hasn't yet added her own unique perspective to the mix. On Thursday, she will accompany the president in suburban Maryland for their first official joint appearance since he withdrew from the campaign. Together, they will talk about the actions they are taking to bring down costs for the American people. The next day, Harris is scheduled to give a significant speech in Raleigh about her economic proposals. According to her campaign, her policies will prioritize “corporate price-gouging” and cut expenses for middle-class households.
Trump consistently fails to deliver
Simple campaign themes are easily thought of, and they might aid Trump in recovering from his surprise at the Democratic Party's decision to replace Biden with Harris.
The former president's personal obsessions and actions have alienated important suburban voters in battleground areas. Republican operatives are clearly irritated that Obama hasn't given up on these issues and is instead focusing on the economy, the border, and global threats.
CNN political analyst Scott Jennings said Trump during an appearance with Anderson Cooper on Monday, "You've got to focus." "You won't win the race arguing with the other campaign about things like crowd size and things that most Americans don't actually think about. People's feelings toward the nation are still negative. The nation is perceived by many as being off course. The cost of food continues to enrage them. Their constant worry about their financial situation still enrages them.
"The problem is that when he speaks in front of the camera, former President Donald Trump, who is heavily involved in the campaign's communication, needs to focus on his message," Republican strategist Brad Todd told CNN's Kasie Hunt on Tuesday. He has to narrow it down and concentrate on what voters will receive in the event that Kamala Harris prevails.
Todd was following in the footsteps of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who issued the following advice to Trump on Fox News on Monday: "Start questioning her (positions) and stop questioning the size of her crowds."
During a friendly two-hour conversation on Monday with tech tycoon Elon Musk, Trump did bring up some economic points including energy output and inflation. The former president stated, "The people want to hear about the economy and the fact that they can't buy groceries because the election is coming up." But it didn't take long for him to go down a rabbit hole, bragging about how he redesigned the new Air Force One planes and amazed at how many people were watching their live video. When it came to the economics, Musk was more persuasive than Trump. Additionally, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, Trump's choice for vice president, has paid much closer attention to the economy while out on the campaign road.
Harris responds to criticism with a hint of populism.
Harris's three-week political honeymoon appears to be continuing, and when the Democratic National Convention is held in Chicago the following week, it is probably going to receive even more momentum. The purpose of the event is to enhance Harris' reputation and deepen her appeal to Americans in the middle class, particularly with regard to economic matters. Additionally, Hillary will gain from the efforts of Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, the two most accomplished orators in her party.
Presidents 42 and 44 could be very useful. 2012 saw Clinton offer an enthralling speech in which she articulated points that Obama had found difficult to communicate while running for reelection. Obama dutifully branded his Democratic predecessor "the secretary of explaining stuff." Obama was attempting to strike a balance between his desire to claim credit for an economic recovery following the Great Recession and his care not to infuriate people who were still far from delighted about the health of the economy.
Some anecdotal evidence suggests that Harris's rise has started to mitigate Democratic weaknesses related to the economy, which is encouraging for Democrats. Prior to Biden's withdrawal, a CNN survey conducted early in July revealed that voters' top concerns were unquestionably related to the economy. Only 32% of them selected Biden, while 51% of them thought Trump would manage the situation. However, Harris had closed the gap significantly in a recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey, trailing the former president by only 3 points on the matter. She has lowered Trump's economic disadvantage in crucial swing states, according to a survey conducted over the weekend by the New York Times and Siena College.
However, Harris has to move quickly because Trump is looking for a way to characterize her adversely, particularly in relation to the economy.
Harris is making calculated changes, while her running partner, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, is enjoying criticizing Trump and charging that he crashed the economy by mishandling the Covid-19 outbreak, for example. By endorsing his plan to eliminate federal taxes on tips, she has already enraged Trump. This is a ploy by both candidates for service workers in Nevada, a crucial battleground.
She's also quietly changing the tone.
"Look, despite the fact that our economy is performing well overall, prices for necessities like groceries are still too high." In Phoenix over the weekend, Harris stated, "You know it, and I know it," referencing her involvement in price-fixing schemes while serving as California's attorney general. "I will keep pushing for lower costs if I am elected president. I'll take on large companies who practice unlawful price gouging. I'll take on corporate landlords that unjustly hike working people' rents. I'm going to challenge big pharma and put a price ceiling on prescription medications for all Americans.
"In summary, working-class and middle-class families will always come first for me, not Donald Trump."
Harris may be able to lessen Trump's advantage on the most important election issue with this empathy mixed with a hint of populism, particularly in the crucial Blue Wall States of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. She looks forward to using it to get into the Oval Office.
